Fitness

Exercise Predicts Lifespan More Than Smoking

In a surprising new study, researchers have found that exercise data is more accurate than smoking or medical history in predicting a person’s short-term death risk.

Typically, physicians use lifestyle choices or your personal medical factors—such as cancer or a history of strokes—to estimate a person’s mortality risk, which in term can help them extend their life. But new research indicates that wearing an activity tracker may provide a more reliable way of predicting death risk.

Using exercise as predictors

A team of scientists at John Hopkins Medicine looked at data from two separate National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. The studies included nearly 3,000 men and women between the ages of 50 and 84. To gather more than 30 predictors (20 of which were related to physical activity) of 5-year all-cause mortality, the researchers used:

  • medical records
  • lab results
  • survey responses

Volunteers wore an activity tracker on their hip for one week. The only times they remove the tracker were to shower, sleep or swim.

“We’ve been interested in studying physical activity and how accumulating it in spurts throughout the day could predict mortality,” says professor Ciprian Crainiceanu, Ph.D., “because activity is a factor that can be changed, unlike age or genetics.”

The results

The trackers were able to determine death risk 30% better than smoking-related information and 40% better than data involving cancer or stroke history. 

Of all the exercise-related predictors, total daily physical activity was the best predictor of mortality, followed by age and then time spent performing moderate to vigorous exercise. Perhaps most interesting, the amount of exercise someone did between 12 p.m. and 2 p.m. was a better indicator than even diabetes or how much alcohol the person drinks. 

Of course, the results of this study don’t mean that exercising more will guarantee your risk of mortality will be lower, but the point is, exercise is vital.

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